(Dan Tri) – The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in the early morning of June 6 greatly affected the conflict situation between the Russian and Ukrainian armies on the Southern Donetsk front, especially the Kherson region.
A large area in Kherson was flooded with water due to a hydroelectric dam collapse (Photo: AP).
Both Russia and Ukraine are blaming each other for the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in Kherson, in the context of the war in the East heating up due to Kiev launching a major counterattack and Kherson itself being a side.
So how will the two sides actually be affected when this dam breaks?
Ukraine: Opens up opportunities to attack Crimea directly?
In fact, the distance from the right bank (right bank) of the Dnieper River in Kherson, which is under Russian control, to the isthmus connecting to the Crimean peninsula is just over 50km.
This is said to be an ideal location with a battlefield depth short enough for the Ukrainian army to be able to break through to Crimea or at least achieve positive results, creating resonance for the large-scale counter-attack campaign that has been planned.
However, after withdrawing from Kherson in November 2022, the Russian army has established a solid, multi-layered defense system with large minefields on the right bank of the Dnieper River.
The Kakhovka Dam is broken, rising water can submerge the defense line close to the river and neutralize the minefields and hard obstacles that Russian forces spent a lot of time building, creating new opportunities for Ukraine on the surface.
When the water recedes because Ukraine proactively closes dams upstream, the door will open for Kiev’s forces to cross the river and attack the right bank.
This is the most positive and resonant scenario for Ukraine compared to direct attacks on Russia’s fortified defense lines in South Donetsk, Bakhmut or the Kharkov region.
Reality shows that in the first few days of attacking the enemy’s hard defense line, Ukraine suffered significant losses in people and equipment but did not or did not achieve any significant results.
Location of the Kakhovka nuclear power plant and hydroelectric dam (Graphic: Reuters).
Russia: `Freeze` Kherson, concentrate troops on another front
A notable point is that the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed immediately after the Russian Ministry of Defense informed that Ukraine had launched a major counterattack.
Moscow certainly had calculations about the possibility of the Kakhovka dam being sabotaged right from the moment it decided to withdraw troops from the left bank of the Dnieper, to build a solid defense line on the other side of the river.
Currently, Russia’s defensive positions on the Kherson front are often 1 to 2 km from the river bank with many layers of `dragon tooth` concrete blocks and dense minefields.
So what impact will the collapse of the Kakhovka dam have on Russia?
On the other hand, when the water rises, Ukraine will not be able to deploy a breakthrough force across the river to prey on the Russian air force and artillery.
And when the water recedes, will the scenario be favorable for Ukraine?
First, the right bank of the Dnieper controlled by Russia has low terrain and alternating marshes along the river. When the water recedes, these marsh areas will still exist.
If Ukraine wants to attack, the job is not only to cross the river, but also to cross the swamps that are `enemies` of motor vehicles, not to mention they also have to face heavy Russian firepower.
There is an opinion that Russia also benefits when Kherson `freezes` creating an opportunity for them to significantly reduce defenders on this front to deploy to reinforce other hot spots such as South Donetsk, Donbass, Belgorod…
However, any war has variables.