(Dan Tri) – The world is focusing attention on the fact that Ukraine is `rushing in all directions` including three main fronts: Kherson, Zaporozhya and Kharkov to find Russia’s weakest defense hole.
Ukrainian artillery unit fires 2S7-Pion artillery near a front line in eastern Kharkiv province on August 26, 2022 (Photo: AFP).
Once Russia’s vulnerability is discovered, Ukraine will use the strategic reserve force of two elite corps trained by NATO and equipped with modern weapons to attack fiercely.
Has Ukraine’s spring offensive campaign begun yet?
On June 4, a large-scale military operation of the Ukrainian army (AFU) broke out on the entire front line from Southern Donetsk to Western Kherson.
The Russian Ministry of Defense believes that Ukraine has launched a spring offensive campaign as Kiev has long announced.
`All this is not true. When all this starts, our army will decide, then people will know about it, they will see it.`
Why did Kiev hide and deny, when reality shows that there was a major military operation happening across the entire line?
Indeed, this military campaign by Kiev has very important political significance because its outcome will determine many things.
A successful campaign would reassure Ukraine’s Western allies and could reduce popular support for the war, even if it does not cause the collapse of Russia’s armed forces or its occupation.
If the offensive regains significant ground and asserts control over key strategic points, it will significantly improve Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table.
But a failed or unsuccessful campaign will have serious consequences for the Kiev government.
Ukrainian tanks fire artillery (Photo: Reuters).
A forced military campaign!
It is said that it is forced because it is pressured by political factors.
What happens when the west stops aid to Ukraine?
Therefore, when a military campaign is not fully prepared in terms of forces, weapons, ammunition, technical and logistical equipment;
More than anyone else, the Ukrainian Army General Staff understands itself and this principle, so that’s why they keep extending the attack deadline from Spring to Summer.
Launching a military campaign is reckless and violates military principles
To understand this, we carefully analyze the battlefield situation.
First: Russian military activities.
Strategic retreat to deploy active defense
It can be said that since September 2022, Russian troops have retreated or, as Western media has described, `fled` from Kharkov, Izyum and especially Kherson.
Now that the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam has been broken, causing 10% of the territory managed by Ukraine and 90% managed by Russia to be flooded, we can see that General Surovikin’s decision to withdraw from Kherson was extremely extreme.
If you hesitate, it is likely that more than 30,000 soldiers and vehicles of the Russian Army will have no way to retreat, drown in the water and be submerged by Ukrainian troops.
Russia withdrew its troops to build a multi-layered, continuous, solid defense line and deployed friendly forces in the two areas of Kherson and Zaporozhya.
Choose the `playing field` and dictate the gameplay
When Kherson and Zaporozhya are `frozen`, the Ukrainian Army will be forced to launch an attack in the Donbass region.
Everyone knows why Russia chose to fight with Ukraine – NATO is there. It is close to Russian territory, the logistics and techniques serving the Russian army are favorable, providing timely combat support to ground forces.
The Russian army’s way of playing is to still organize and deploy `meat grinders`.
Second: Are the military activities of the Ukrainian Army rushed and passive?
As we know, the principle that becomes true in large military campaigns when attacking and defending is based on equal `units of strength`, the attacking side must have 3-5 times the force of the opposing side.
However, Russia has superior firepower, including air force and artillery, and is maintaining a defensive position, while Ukraine’s attack force has no favorable location at the starting point of the attack, and the sky in the combat area is opposed.
Saying this does not mean that the Ukrainian Army can only `sit and watch` the controlled territory without daring to attack and regain it.
However, the AFU fighting on the Eastern front was too far away from supplies from the Western rear, and weapons were in short supply;
The Russian Air Force launches glide bombs at a distance of 40-70 km, so the AFU’s starting line of attack must be at least 40 km from the Russian defense line.
Reality of war
From June 4 until now, after many days of consecutive attacks, the Ukrainian Army’s raids were broken and suffered heavy losses before the fierce resistance of the Russian army.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Army has not yet found a hole in the Russian defense line, so they have not announced the opening of the campaign yet?
The collapse of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam shocked the world, but behind this event there are many things worth mentioning.